ETH course analysis week 27 – And the trend continues downwards

The price fell the week from BTC 0.116 (EUR 260.70) to BTC 0.094 (EUR 211.20), a fall of almost 19%.

Summary of the results

Course fell over the week. A stable downtrend has been tested several times, but has always held its ground. Currently the price is at 0.094 BTC (211.20 EUR) and thus below EMA24 and EMA48.
Negative news such as the scam posing as My Ether Wallet have further lowered the price. In addition to this concrete event, the first ICO-sponsored projects seem to be beginning to exchange their generated ether for Fiat. This is of course noticeable in a falling price: Since July 3rd at the latest, the Ethereum price has been moving in a downward trend; EMA24 and EMA48 are important resistances that have been tested but not overcome so far.

The MACD (second panel from above) is negative. Although the price tried to cross the zero line, it failed at it, so that the MACD line (blue) still lies below the signal (orange).

The RSI (third panel from above) stands at 40 and is therefore clearly bearish.

Overall, the 60min chart is bearish on price, trend and indicators. Not much positive is to be said, even the currently tested support at 0.094 BTC (211.20 EUR) does not change this bearish picture.

The long-term price trend

The medium- and long-term charts are again being looked at to further assess future price movements. Let’s first look at the 240min chart:

We see a triangle pattern that has been determining the price for almost a month. This is bearish as the support remains stable and the resistance falls. This triangle pattern should be broken for the next few hours, support is currently being tested.

The MACD is negative, at least the MACD line is above the signal. The RSI rounds off the bearish picture with a value of 35. Overall, the 240min chart is clearly bearish as well.

Let’s have a look at the 1D chart at the end:

The upward-channel that has been followed since March was breached this week. The 38.2% fib retracement level is currently being tested, but the outlook is rather pessimistic overall: With the mentioned end of the bullish channel, the MACD also dropped into negative territory. The RSI is currently at 39 and confirms the bearish picture overall.

The long-term forecast is fully bearish according to price, trend and MACD: The Upward Channel has been exited, the MACD is negative in all charts viewed and also the RSI is in bearish territory everywhere. Surely one will have to look at how the test of the supports in the 60min-, 240min- and 1D-charts, which are all around 0.095 BTC, will end.