Citi: Miners and businesses keep Bitcoin secret

“If miners provide a steady source of supply and demand does not grow, we have a Bitcoin surplus and the consequence is that the Bitcoin price is pushed down.”
Traders are also pushing down the Bitcoin price.

Analysis points to the increased complexity and costs involved in mining as a driver of growth in Bitcoin supply.

Gold Light BeamsAs mining costs rise, miners are forced to sell the newly mined Bitcoins directly to cover their investments. The Citi says there are an estimated 3,500 BTC mined per day.

“If the miners provide a steady source of supply and demand does not grow, we have a Bitcoin surplus and the consequence is that the Bitcoin price is pushed down.

Traders also push the Bitcoin secret

Citi also concludes that the large Bitcoin secret companies are simultaneously exerting pressure on the price. The decision of Dell or Expedia to accept the Bitcoin secret for laptops or hotel bookings in the future was largely welcomed with great enthusiasm. However, it should not be forgotten that the companies directly convert every Bitcoin they earn into Fiat currency (USD) and thus exert even more sales pressure on Bitcoin.

“It would be a mistake for companies to accept and hold Bitcoin,” the Citi said.

In addition, the accounting rules for large companies, even if they wanted to, would make it impossible for them to hold Bitcoin at present, Citi said.

Due to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), companies cannot use Bitcoin inventories as a hedge against currency risks due to the volatile nature of the digital currency. They would have to identify Bitcoin inventories as speculative assets, which in turn would have a negative impact on the company’s risk profile.

In other words, large companies can accept the Bitcoin, not be used to increase Bitcoin demand.

Low demand

The increasing supply by companies accepting Miner and Bitcoin would theoretically have to be absorbed by an increasing consumer demand. Unfortunately, this is not the case at the moment, according to Citi.

According to the bank, the great benefits Bitcoin offers have not yet reached the people on the street. That’s why only a very small group of people prefer to pay with Bitcoin than with the world-famous credit card. The general public is not yet aware of the more advantageous Bitcoin method.

The Bitcoin demand is currently maintained by users who prefer to pay for love rather than money with Bitcoin. However, evidence from the market shows that there is not enough love to keep the Bitcoin price from falling:

“Users who pay with Bitcoin do it for love, not money. And the transaction profile also shows that love alone is not enough.”

Other market observers also say that the Bitcoin offer from miners and large companies can contribute to a weak Bitcoin price. Mark Lamb, Managing Director of Coinfloor, the English Bitcoin exchange, confirmed that sales pressure from miners and large companies has intensified in recent months.

“Last year the miners sold a much smaller percentage of their mined Bitcoin. Today we are already assuming that on average they sell 70-90% directly. In addition, there are the companies that usually exchange their Bitcoins directly in Fiat currency and thus generate more print.”

Bitcoin ETF: SEC decision could already be made on Friday

According to a source close to the SEC, the long-awaited decision on the fate of the Winkelvoss Bitcoin ETF will probably be taken on Friday.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has until March 11 to decide on the proposed regulatory change – a positive decision would pave the way for the Bitcoin ETF and would be the first change of its kind.

The decision, regardless of the outcome, is the result of a three-year battle between the Winkelvoss twins Cameron and Tyler.

They first submitted their proposal for a Bitcoin loophole to the SEC in mid-2013

Should the SEC decide in favour of the ETF, analysts expect a sharp rise in the share price: https://www.onlinebetrug.net/en/bitcoin-loophole/. According to them, a possible approval has already been priced in and has driven the price up in recent weeks. Bitcoin loophole reached several new record highs within a few days.

At 1,300 US dollars, however, the price upswing ended for the first time and Bitcoin encountered hard resistance from the bears. According to the price index, the digital currency reached its highest price at 1,293.47 US dollars on 3 March. Since then, the price has lost some of its momentum. Current price: 1,179 US dollars or 1,116 euros.

On the other hand, some analysts spoke out against approving the Bitcoin ETF. They say that if the ETF is officially traded on the Bats Global Exchange, it could have a negative effect on the Bitcoin price.

Phil Bak, former New York Stock Exchange Chairman and currently CEO of ETF and ACSI funds, said in an interview with CoinDesk that the SEC usually tries to avoid a public refusal. In the event of a rejection, Bak said, the SEC would probably pass on the final decision to another authority and postpone the final result.

According to Bak, such setbacks could be driven by other factors shortly before the deadline, especially in the case of Bitcoin:

“In this case, the government authority might want to show that it is not quite sure about Bitcoin. Alternatively, the proponents could also vote for the fund to the bitter end and have the decision clarified in court – rejection or not.”

“A coin toss
In the absence of a final decision there is great uncertainty in the market.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX trading platform said:

“I have heard good arguments for and against ETF approval. Currently it resembles a coin toss: 50/50.”

Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of CryptoCompare, expressed similar views. He says that the quotas for or against a permit are more or less “out of the air”.

But not only experts directly rooted in the industry compare the SEC’s decision with a coin toss. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas also predicted a 50/50 chance.

The waiting game
All those waiting for a decision from the SEC can only watch as the deadline of March 11th approaches.

Jeff Bishop, ETF expert and co-founder of the investor board RagingBull.com, could imagine the SEC postponing the decision beyond March 11, probably accompanied by further price gains.

“I have the feeling they will find a way to delay the decision further. With the recent record highs and the expected ETF wave, they may try to delay things until the market has calmed down a bit.” Bishop himself has said.

Bishop himself has spoken out in favour of ETF approval:

“Investors should be allowed to decide on the true value of a Bitcoin. The more liquidity options available to the market, the more transparent and accurate the Bitcoin price will be,” says Bishop.

Projects on Lisk: What happened after the relaunch?

About half a year ago, the team behind Lisk relaunched its platform. The most important message Lisk received was that they wanted to make it easier for blockchain developers to start sidechain projects on Lisk. A look at the largest and most important projects associated with Lisk.

Sapiens
The Sapiens project aims to create a decentralized platform for certification and verification within an academic ecosystem. Blockchain developer Matteo Ferrari had already founded the platform in 2016 to enable people to control their data and certificates via a blockchain. His first area of application was to identify schools, universities and other educational institutions whose administration is to be relieved and made more efficient.

Adamant is against this with a blockchain application for crypto trader

“People deserve to have full control over their certificates and records in a form that allows them to easily share them. In return, the crypto trader blockchain can function as a secure and trust-independent notarial system. With Sapiens, we want to help schools, universities and businesses offer their services through a decentralized, cost-effective and secure crypto trader application, says Matteo Ferrari.

According to the team behind Sapiens, digitized academic references should make services and certificates more easily retrievable and verifiable. The Sapiens platform wants to provide the necessary tools with which everyone can deposit the most important building blocks of their career on the blockchain. Sapiens builds on the Lisk-Blockchain and uses the possibilities offered by the Sidechain Development Kit of the platform.

BrikBit
The Blockchain platform BrikBit exists only since this year and has the goal to develop Blockchain applications for the real estate sector. For this purpose, a team of architects has been put together who want to work with their experience in the real estate sector to solve key problems. The approach of BrikBit includes a crypto currency REDA (Real Estate Digital Asset).

The central challenge of BrikBit is that there is no object that realistically reflects the value of a property. In contrast to other models of tokenization, BrikBit does not only want to create a pure crypto currency, but an asset that contains the information about the property in digital form. For example, construction and renovation measures are to be mapped on the blockchain.

Like the Sapiens project, BrikBit builds a sidechain on the Lisk-Blockchain

“REDA collects a range of information about the properties, which is jointly managed by a community. Thus, the system creates an infrastructure for the exchange and maintenance of this information through protocols that are accepted by all members. We are taking the first steps to develop international standards to be able to react to the developments in the real estate market”, says BrikBit, said BrikBit CTO Alex Dell’Orto.

Adamant
The Adamant project is in the process of building an open source messenger on the blockchain. With this, the company wants to address a number of problems that arise with the various existing messenger services. The biggest problem identified by the team is security gaps, which are exemplary for centralized peer-to-peer messengers. The privacy of the users who communicate via the messenger also leaves something to be desired with the classic short message services.

The platform advertises itself as the only private messenger that runs entirely on the blockchain. The project, whose developers come from Russia, exists since 2017. In contrast to the two previously mentioned, it is not a direct Lisk sidechain project, but rather builds on the code base of Lisk. In addition, the crypto currency LSK should be able to be used as a means of payment in the Adamant Messenger.

“We believe in the power of Open Source. That’s why we’ve looked at several open source projects to start our project. We first started with a proof-of-work system. However, since sending and receiving messages took too long, we quickly stopped. Delegated Proof of Stake seemed to us to be a good alternative. Finally, we decided to base our system on Lisks Code-Base. The fact that Lisk uses NodeJS and PostgreSQL also influenced our decision,

says Adamant-CTO Dimitriy Soloduhin.

GNY
The Blockchain project GNY started already in 2015 under the name Grey Jean Technol.

Former US Mint Director: The Bitcoin is a serious cryptosoft challenge

Edmund C MoyEdmund C. Moy, the former director of the U.S. mint “The Mint”, made some waves in the Bitcoin community last week when he shared his enthusiasm for digital currencies on Twitter. Moy’s comments were in response to the 2.6 billion Credit Suisse agreement, in which the major Swiss bank apologized for helping clients with tax evasion. In the shadow of these headlines, the 38th US Mint Director went even further, saying that digital currencies could be the answer to the current problems of the current financial system:

“$2.6 billion does not hurt Credit Suisse. It’s time for the big banks to get competition. Time for digital currencies”.

But that wasn’t enough. Moy went on to post a short article on 23 May on how Bitcoin is developing into the “revolution in payment systems”.

The Bitcoin and the idea behind cryptosoft will change our traditional notion of a currency

The entire article looks at the strengths and weaknesses of Bitcoin, with Moy taking an astonishingly optimistic stance on cryptosoft and its impact on the global financial market. Moy even said that with digital currencies, some serious disadvantages of Fiat currencies can be bypassed. In detail, he says, the digital cryptosoft currencies will be able to deprive governments of the monopoly of currencies:

“They carry little risk of breaking, unlike the currencies of sovereign states (such as the Greeks, or, to put it more broadly, the European Union).

Bitcoin leverages government monopolies

Moy looks positively at these characteristics even though he has realised that this innovation can harm his former employer. He added: “You can mine Bitcoins. There is no need for minting”.

The Bitcoin as an innovative medium of exchange
Moy was also very enthusiastic about the potential of the new transaction opportunities:

“As a medium of exchange, the Bitcoin has some innovative advantages over traditional currencies: it has a global nature, infinite divisibility and is easy to store.

Moy calls our current payment system “archaic” and believes that the easy divisibility of Bitcoin can create a whole new way of micropayment and will even eliminate barriers of the global financial market.

Bitcoin as a secure investment
Moy was at least as positive about the Bitcoin as an asset and said he was sure the price would stabilise once the Bitcoin was accepted by the masses. He also targeted critics who believe that a state-backed currency may be safer, although the dollar is primarily driven by market demand.

As an added benefit, he said, the Bitcoin may allow governments to think a little more about their monetary policies, at the latest when the digital currencies reach their full potential this could have a positive impact on the economy.

Wall Street Journal: 88 million US dollars money laundering via crypto exchanges?

As a report by the Wall Street Journal suggests, a total of 88 million US dollars have been washed since 2016 through the use of crypto exchanges. Exchange ShapeShift is particularly in focus. Its CEO Erik Voorhees opposes the presentation and accuses the newspaper of distributing FUD.

On 28 September, the Wall Street Journal, one of the most important US daily newspapers, published a report on the role of crypto exchanges in money laundering activities. Under the title “How Dirty Money Disappears Into the Black Hole of Cryptocurrency”, the magazine digs up a general account with the crypto sector. The crypto exchanges in particular are not doing well in the analysis.

A total of 2,500 wallets examined according to the Bitcoin news

In the course of the research, the Wall Street Journal team examined the deposits of a total of 2,500 wallets. The selected wallets were known to be involved in illegal business. With the help of the blockchain company Elliptic, the journal was able to track how users transferred wallet deposits to Bitcoin news crypto exchanges.

As one of the main recipients of the illegally acquired money, the journal identified the Swiss crypto exchange ShapeShift. More than nine million of the 88 million US dollars laundered since 2016 are said to have passed through ShapeShift. One reason for this could be that until recently the crypto exchange enabled anonymous trading of crypto currencies. KYC standards for ShapeShift will only come into effect next week, on 1 October.

ShapeShift CEO Voorhees defends himself

The Wall Street Journal particularly highlights the trolls of CEO Erik Voorhees. Voorhees had repeatedly spoken out against KYC and AML regulations and stressed the freedom of transactions. The journal now uses these statements to underline that money launderers have an easy game to play with the crypto exchange.

Voorhees himself spoke a little later directly about the criticism levelled against him and ShapeShift. Understandably, he didn’t let the accusations sit on his shoulders. Instead, he takes a stand against the Wall Street Journal, which he describes as “poorly researched and misleading”.

2/2 Author cherry-picked data, excluding facts contrary to vilification narrative. $9m figure is less than 0.2% of our volume over the time period. Meanwhile global money laundering through banks is 2-5%. Op-ed forthcoming.

He also posted a graphic on Twitter that compares the amount of money laundered by ShapeShift with the amount laundered by banks. He equates the nine million laundered in the last two years with the 2.7 billion US dollars laundered through banks in one day.

Even though this comparison is enormously limping at several points, the message behind it becomes clear to all readers. Especially representatives of the traditional financial industry are still watching the crypto sector with suspicious eyes. Accordingly understandable is the criticism of Voorhees, the journal would ride on the old money laundering eggs against crypto currencies. On the other hand, the introduction of KYC at ShapeShift shows that the stock market was not immune to money laundering in the past.

ETH course analysis week 27 – And the trend continues downwards

The price fell the week from BTC 0.116 (EUR 260.70) to BTC 0.094 (EUR 211.20), a fall of almost 19%.

Summary of the results

Course fell over the week. A stable downtrend has been tested several times, but has always held its ground. Currently the price is at 0.094 BTC (211.20 EUR) and thus below EMA24 and EMA48.
Negative news such as the scam posing as My Ether Wallet have further lowered the price. In addition to this concrete event, the first ICO-sponsored projects seem to be beginning to exchange their generated ether for Fiat. This is of course noticeable in a falling price: Since July 3rd at the latest, the Ethereum price has been moving in a downward trend; EMA24 and EMA48 are important resistances that have been tested but not overcome so far.

The MACD (second panel from above) is negative. Although the price tried to cross the zero line, it failed at it, so that the MACD line (blue) still lies below the signal (orange).

The RSI (third panel from above) stands at 40 and is therefore clearly bearish.

Overall, the 60min chart is bearish on price, trend and indicators. Not much positive is to be said, even the currently tested support at 0.094 BTC (211.20 EUR) does not change this bearish picture.

The long-term price trend

The medium- and long-term charts are again being looked at to further assess future price movements. Let’s first look at the 240min chart:

We see a triangle pattern that has been determining the price for almost a month. This is bearish as the support remains stable and the resistance falls. This triangle pattern should be broken for the next few hours, support is currently being tested.

The MACD is negative, at least the MACD line is above the signal. The RSI rounds off the bearish picture with a value of 35. Overall, the 240min chart is clearly bearish as well.

Let’s have a look at the 1D chart at the end:

The upward-channel that has been followed since March was breached this week. The 38.2% fib retracement level is currently being tested, but the outlook is rather pessimistic overall: With the mentioned end of the bullish channel, the MACD also dropped into negative territory. The RSI is currently at 39 and confirms the bearish picture overall.

The long-term forecast is fully bearish according to price, trend and MACD: The Upward Channel has been exited, the MACD is negative in all charts viewed and also the RSI is in bearish territory everywhere. Surely one will have to look at how the test of the supports in the 60min-, 240min- and 1D-charts, which are all around 0.095 BTC, will end.